Green Votes

Why we will win

2009-08-18T18:53:00.000-07:00

As the street protests seemingly "die down", and as CNN and other news outlets move on to more "sexy" topics to cover, one can not help but feel discouraged that the regime has been successful in using un-imaginable levels of brutality to suppress the people, and to push through its coup.

On the surface, the regime has won. People are not going on the streets in the same numbers as the first two weeks; Ahmadinejad has been sworn in as the president, and all the subsequent "fighting" between him and other hardliners (on his choice for vice presidency and how Kahamenei was not happy with his choice etc etc) create the impression that the whole issue of the protests and the government's illegitimacy has been pushed aside, and the "government" has "moved on" to the "business of running the country".

But in my opinion, this is far from over, and underneath this facade of calm, there is a huge undercurrent of dissent that is ready to blow up any time. I also feel that despite the regime's apparent victory, the green movement will ultimately prevail.

There are many reasons for why I feel this way, but if there is ONE reason why i think we will be victorious at the end, is this:

ما بیشماریم

Literally translated, it means " we are many".

There are simply way too many of "us": people who yearn for freedom; the freedom to think how they want, express what they want, wear what they want and go where they want; people who want peace and prosperity, who want the opportunity to live a normal life without having a government poke its head into every little aspect of their lives and force its ideology onto them; people who want religion out of their daily lives, who demand to be treated with respect, and who simply want the rule of law (a seemingly un-attainable elixir that we have been looking for since the 1905 constitutional revolution).

These people are all part of this movement. One of the issues that has been coming up frequently in many blogs and discussions is that " the movement does not have a "leader". Some feel that without a "leader" (perhaps some charismatic character like Ayatollah Khomeini, or Barak Obama) the movement is doomed to fail.

But as the past two months have clearly shown, while people like Moussavi and karroubi have played a very important role in directing the protests, in many instances they themselves have been followers of the massive protest movements. Every person who has been taking part in these protests, both inside and outside of Iran, is a "leader". What gives me a lot of hope that we will ultimately prevail is exactly this "grass root" nature of many of the activities we have seen.

Just look at some of the following initiatives by protesters:

a group of young Iranians, plastering an Iranian government owned bank's front window in Paris with posters and bumper stickers protesting the fraud,

an anonymous Iranian artist in Tehran, creating beautiful art (in the form of stickers) and placing them all over the city,

anonymous designers creating T-shirts and wrist bands and distributing them for free in rallies,

and the many more people who through organizing, writing, blogging, translating, drawing and so on have been spreading awareness of the struggle.

All of these people have one thing in common: they do not necessarily belong to a political group. They are not monarchists or communists or socialists or MEK. They are people who feel a responsibility to "do something", and they spend their money and energy raising awareness. And at the end of the day, there are way many more of these people than there are basiji militiamen and IRGC guardsmen and government cronies.

We will win, because ما بیشماریم.

The green movement and the Iranian diaspora- a paradox

2009-08-07T22:46:00.000-07:00

I have been meaning to write about the effect the recent protests in Iran have had on the large Iranian diaspora, and the role that these "expatriate" Iranians have been playing in supporting the green movement inside Iran.

Like most things related to Iran, in my opinion we are facing an interesting paradox here. While the recent uprising (if you want to call it that) has resulted in an enormous level of unity amongst the Iranians inside the country, and many living abroad, it has also underlined long-standing divisions amongst the Iranian political activists and their supporters outside of Iran.

Broadly speaking, those who oppose the current regime/government fall into two categories:

- most of political activists who have been living in exile outside of Iran, and a good number of their supporters, completely oppose the totality of the Iranian regime. For them, the idea of "the Islamic Republic" is repulsive, and they advocate nothing short of total annihilation of the current political system in Iran (i.e completely doing away with the idea of velayat faghih, the ruling mullahs and their associated security and military apparatus). The alternative that these groups propose is quite diverse, as this group of activists includes the monarchists who fled the country 30 years ago, and who continue to yearn for the return of the monarchy, as well as the monarchists' arch nemesis, the leftists (communist, socialists and various shades of red in between). This group also includes the MEK, which is a whole weird ideology onto itself! The only thing that "unifies" this diverse bunch, is their opposition to the existence of the political system in Iran, and their hopes that one day the current regime will fall. There is no consensus amongst these people on how they think the regime should fall, as some advocate a bloody revolution and mass uprisings, and others hope for military intervention by an outside force (such as the US, or Israel).

-the "opposition" movement within Iran on the other hand does not want to see the current "regime" destroyed, but rather "reformed" through peaceful means and by using the "capacity" within the current system's constitution to effect change. Indeed, people like Moussavi and Khatami and all the various reformist political parties, were themselves leaders of the 1979 revolution that resulted in the creation of the current political system. The last thing they want is for the system to collapse, and for the monarchists and leftists to come back to power. They see the current situation (i.e the take over of the conservatives of the system, and the fraudulent elections and the return of Ahamdinejad) as a perversion of the 1979 revolutionary ideals, and they want to reform the system to actualize such ideals. And they think that the current system, specifically the current constitution, has enough tools in it to allow the system to reform from within without another bloody revolution or foreign intervention. This group of activists draw a line between themselves and the first group, and are known as the "reformists". One can argue that they should not even be called the "opposition", as in the end, they do not "oppose" the Islamic Republic, they just want to reform it.

A major argument amongst Iranian intellectuals and political activists over the past 12 years has been about this exact division between the two groups, and about which side is right, and whether the Iranian constitution that has provisions (such as the velayat faghih principle) even has the ability to provide the opportunity for reform as advocated by the second group. Twelve years ago, when Khatami became president, and the "reformist" movement officially came into existence, the "opposition" outside of Iran completely dismissed them as part of the political system, and one of the arguments they made was that the system has no capacity for reform. As time went by, and the reformers were gradually and progressively driven out of power and pushed back by the conservatives, it appeared that the "opposition" had indeed been right. The massive pessimism that prevailed the Iranian society 4 years ago, and the boycott of the polls by most people which allowed Ahmadinejad to win was considered as a sign that most people agreed with the outside opposition groups in their assessments.

The question now is, what side do the people in Iran identify with?

Given that the Iranian society is full of paradoxes, and one can draw many lines through it based on ethnic divisions, cultural variances, class differences, educational levels and so on, it is hard to make a statement about what the Iranian PEOPLE may want. Anyone who claims to speak for the Iranian PEOPLE is most likely wrong, and at best can represent a segment of the society. In the nest few paragraphs, when I speak of the Iranian people, I am mostly referring to the segment that I think I represent: young, middle class, educated.

In my opinion, a large number of people inside Iran, want what the outside opposition groups have been advocating for the past 30 years: a complete change in the political system. The problem they have with the outside opposition is not so much about the message, but the messengers (and the methods they advocate for change)! In other words, many -perhaps most- Iranians don't mind seeing the end of the current political system, but they also do not want to see the restitution of the monarchy or the return of leftist groups. They certainly do not want the MEK to get hold of power, as this group has shown that when it comes to respecting democracy and freedom, they are no better than the people currently murdering and imprisoning the protesters. Similarly, until recently many people did not want to see another "revolution" happening on the streets and/or uncle Sam dropping bombs on the country.

As a result, many people (and I think probably most of the society) prefer (at least until recently) to accept the "reformists'" approach, and try to change things from within and through peaceful means. So even though they may not necessarily agree with the reformists' message (i.e keeping the system but reforming it), they prefer the messengers (i.e reformists) to the outside opposition figures, and they also prefer the approach that is proposed by the inside "reformist opposition" (i.e peaceful means, through political participation and enhancing the civil society). I think the fact that people went to the polls 12 years ago and elected Khatami was because of this reason. I think the reason why again after 12 years, and when many thought the reformist approach was a dead end, 40 million people went back to the polls and overwhelmingly voted is again because of the same reason.

The question is how have the events of the past 2 months change this landscape (if at all)? Are the people still behind the "reformist" approach, even if their demands are bigger than what the reformists are promising? Or are they moving closer and closer to the "outside opposition" and what they have been advocating (even though for most Iranian, the outside opposition figures are discredited)?

Clearly, the demands of the people, or at least their willingness to express them, have got more and more radical during the past few weeks. While in the first week, all the protests were about the elections and people's main slogan was "where is my vote?", with the heavy handed crackdown and the many killings and injuries inflicted on the protesters the slogans have turned into "death to the dictator" and even "death to Khaemenie". So it appears some protesters are moving beyond the "reformists" and getting closer and closer to the outside opposition (at least in their approach and in their demands for change).

However, it is my feeling that by and large, the majority of the people who have been protesting, dislike the outside opposition (monarchists, leftists and MEK) and their tactics (violent uprising, outside intervention) enough that they would continue to rally behind the "inside reformists", even if these reformists do not yet represent what the people really want. But I also think that with time, the reformist politicians (such as Moussavi, Khatami etc) will inevitably become more and more "radical" in their demands, and as a result more and more in line with what people want (i.e change of the whole system and not just reform). We are already seeing some of this. For example, in his last speech in the US, Mohsen Kadivar who is a "reformist" political activist and close to Moussavi and Khatami, was much more radical in his criticism of the current situation. He clearly opposes the concept of velayat faghih (as I think most reformers do), and he even said clearly that " we did not have a revolution to replace the crown with a turban".

So I think the majority of the people still prefer the reformists and their politicians to the "outside opposition", and even though the current reformist approach is still to preserve the system, they will become more and more radical with time and closer to what people really want. Even now, many agree that the reformist leaders are far behind the populace in terms of their demands, and if they want to stay relevant, they have no other choice but to move closer to the people. What they have going for them is the fact that the outside opposition groups, despite their more appealing message, are extremely discredited and disliked as persons and activists.

40 days after, and Neda lives on.

2009-07-30T21:19:00.000-07:00

It was 40 days ago when the Iranian regime (or at least the faction that was behind the Ahmadinejad coup against Iranian voters) unleashed its killing machine on the protesters. On a black Saturday on June 20, and after Ayatollah Khamenei essentially threatened the protest movement with violence, the various security forces of the country (the IRGC and its intelligence apparatus, the basij militia, the ministry of information agents, and the police) began a killing spree the extents of which is still unknown.

On that day, Neda Agah Soltan, an innocent 27 year old philosophy student, who was not even an active protester and was merely an observer of the events on the streets, was murdered by possibly this man. Her killing was captured on video, and quickly captured the imagination of millions across the world. Neda became the face of the movement, and the symbol for the innocence of the uprising.

The killing of Neda was undoubtedly a pivotal moment in the protests of the past 1.5 months. It was a game changer not only for the massive numbers of protesters, but also for the coup government and its backers (puppeteers?) as well as the international community.

The regime was probably thinking that by committing such murders, it wold be able to instill enormous fear amongst the masses, and scare people back into their homes. what it didn't realize was that such crimes have only fueled the anger of the people, and only serve to intensify the opposition beyond just the election fraud and into a threat to the existence of the whole political system. Forty days on, people across Iran have been on the streets again to commemorate Neda (and countless other martyrs). While until now the protests have been largely limited to Tehran, today we have seen videos of protests in all the major cities of the country.

Neda's murder also changed the way the authorities' have been running their killing campaign. While in the subsequent protests, they appeared to refrain from directly shooting people and targeting them (as they did in the first 10 days of the uprising), they seem to have moved their killing tactics indoors and inside the repressive (and unofficial) prisons. One such place, Kahrizak, was presumably closed by the direct order of the Supreme Leader, in a face saving (but empty) gesture after one the regime's own supporter's son was taken there and tortured to death. The description of the atrocities taken place in Kahrizak, which are just emerging, make Abu Ghoraib and Guantanamo look pale in comparison.

But Neda's killing also had a profound effect internationally, both amongst ordinary people, and politicians. Until then, Obama was still suggesting that he wanted to continue his plans of "engaging" the Iranian regime (i.e sitting down with Ahmadinejad at the negotiation table). However, we saw that with the increasing pressure created by the public dissemination of Neda's last moments(amongst other reasons), the Obama administration and the world are not talking much of engaging the Iranian regime.

On thing is for sure. The people of Iran have a long history of making sacrifices for freedom, and the list of those killed for this is long and heart-breaking. But Neda in her death has been the most powerful weapon in this struggle on the side of the Iranian people, and the way the government has been trying to cover up the story (or divert attention from it by making all sorts of crazy claims) is proof of Neda's enduring power.

Neda, rest in peace.

July 25, Global Day of Action for Human Rights in Iran

2009-07-26T16:37:00.001-07:00

Yesterday, I attended (along with around at least 2000 other people) a protest march in Toronto, organized as part of the Global Day of Action for Human Rights in Iran.

There were numerous rallies held all over the over in support of the freedom movement in Iran (around 110 events planned according to organizers). I would like to share some of these images with you. The news was also covered by various organizations (curiously, the BBC mentioned nothing!).

You can watch CNN's reports here and here and here and here.
Watch Canada's CTV news coverage here.

Toronto

see CBC journalist Jian Ghomeishi's speech here.

Vancouver

More Vancouver videos here and here.

For videos of various other cities (Paris, Rome, Berlin, Cologne, Hamburg, LA, New York, Stcokholm,San Francisco, Washington DC, Amsterdam, Stuttgart,Brisbane), click here.

And here's a video from Sydney, Australia:

Pictures of the protest in Dubai (and remember, the Dubai Police does not allow any protests, and in fact asked people to leave after about 30 minutes).

And here are the folks in Melbourne, Australia:

And let's not forget Vienna:

And of course Tokyo, where around 100 Iranians held a beautiful candle light vigil:

It was a remarkable day of global solidarity with our brothers and sisters in Iran, and a great experience for future protests.

Ahmadinejad, we are waiting for you in New York, we know how much you love to come to the UN and make a fool of yourself!

Iranians abroad organizing

2009-07-22T18:27:00.000-07:00

When Rudi Giuliani made fun of Obama's work in "organizing", I never understood the importance of this sort of activity until the protests broke out in Iran.

The enormous number of people marching in the streets of Tehran galvanized those Iranians living outside of the country in an unprecedented way. Never before had we seen such outpouring of emotions and solidarity amongst the Iranian diaspora. Very quickly, numerous protests were organized in various countries in support of the freedom movement within Iran.

However, it became clear that many of those who had organized such events lacked the necessary experience, or that they were using this opportunity to push their own agendas. When I attended one such event in my city, this lack of "organization" was on display, when various individuals were hounding the local news reporters trying to make statements, with no official spokesperson.

The good news is that we have learned very quickly, and we are now seeing many initiatives organized by various groups across the world. This is very important, as it is now clear that the road to freedom and democracy will be a long one. While those inside Iran are doing the heavy lifting (by demonstrating on the streets, and facing murder, torture and kidnapping and imprisonment by the authorities and their thugs), the Iranian expatriate communities can play an important role in raising awareness and putting pressure on their governments not to recognize the coup government of Ahmadinejad. Such pressure on international organizations and even corporations (for example Nokia, which has admitted to selling tracking technology to Khamanei's regime) will be important in advancing the green movement's agenda.

Some of the important initiatives that I have come across are listed below. I am very impressed by the spontaneous nature of these initiatives, and how well organized they seem to be.

The first such organizing activity (or at least the first I came across) was the green scroll project, where Iranians in at least 195 countries held public gatherings where people put their signatures on green scrolls, telling the world that "Ahmadinejad is NOT our president". The scrolls have been sown together end to end, and the 2000+ meter scroll will be displayed in Paris on July 25th.

July 25 is also the global day of action sponsored by many human rights organizations (both Iranian and International). On this day, numerous events will be held the world over in support of the people of Iran. To find out an event in your city, check out their website.

Akbar Ganji and many Iranian intellectuals and political activists have organized a three day hunger strike, starting today. For three days, they will hold a vigil in front of the United Nations building in New York. People have come from other countries to join this event.

Some Iranians and Canadians will be biking from Toronto to Ottawa in support of human rights. See their cool website here.

And finally, Iranians in Portland and Vancouver have been organizing regular events in their cities. Make sure you check out their sites.

All of these activities can help the world understand that:

Ahamdinejad is NOT the elected president of Iran, and his government is NOT legitimate. Any one who does business with these thugs (such as Russia and China) is complicit in their crimes, and will not be forgiven by the people of Iran.

The movement is well and alive

2009-07-20T12:39:00.000-07:00

SO much has happened since my last post.

Two weeks or so ago, after the bloody crack down of "Black Saturday" and the subsequent wave of arrests, it looked as if the movement had died down and that the regime had been able to suppress the protesters. In fact, there was a feeling of pessimism and almost despair amongst many, who felt that perhaps the regime had gained the upper hand.

However, the events of the past 2-3 weeks have indeed proved that this time around, the regime will not be able to silence our demands through killings and oppression. Here's why I think the green movement is well and alive:

1) Street protests:

The protests have continued despite massive crackdown. July 9th was the 10 year anniversary of the student protests in response to the closure of a reformist newspaper who had published an article on the "serial killing" of opposition activists and writers by the regime's security forces. At that time, in 1999, the so called "lebas shakhsi" (plain clothes thugs who presumably are not officially part of the security apparatus, yet act with complete impunity and even have guns and orders to kill) attacked the student dormitories and violently killed and injured many students at Tehran University (no one knows the true number of people killed, but there were reports of these thugs throwing students out the second floor windows).

On Thursday July 9, people managed to get on the streets again and protest. This is despite regime's efforts to try to "empty out" Tehran of residents (They declared a 3 day holiday-presumably because of a sand storm that had sweeped Tehran- and encouraged people to actually leave the city and go to the country side to get some "fresh air"!!).

Just 3 days ago, we again saw tens of thousands of people marching in the streets. They used the weekly Friday prayers (the same venue where the Supreme Leader Khamanei had threatened people 4 weeks ago) to come out in large numbers. For the past 30 years, the regime had tried to promote the Friday prayers as a weekly confirmation of its legitimacy. They had been encouraging the masses to attend, and had to bring in army soldiers to fill up the venue in order to make it look like people actually went to this event. This time, the green supporters asnwered the regime's invitation, and showed up in massive numbers to show their green banners and shout slogans against the government and the regime! What the regime has been trying to promote finally came back to bite them in the ass!!

2) civil disobedience:

The Iranian people have shown an enormous degree of intelligence in organizing various civil disobedience acts. They are writing slogans in support of the green movement on paper money. There has been campaigns to cut electricity to he city by using (simultaneously) electrical appliances, in order to shut down the power grid (this was done on the night when Ahmadinejad was to give an address to the nation on the national state TV, and reports indicate it was partly successful). Another such event is planned for tomorrow, and the government minister has already come out saying it won't work. Many have taken his remarks as an acknowledgement that the government is scared, and clearly it shows that the word of this event has spread widely amongst the population.

And amazingly, the nightly ritual of shouting "allah-o-akbar" from the rooftops has continued after FIVE weeks, and shows no sign of waning.

3) pressure from political parties and personalities:

Amazingly, many high ranking political personalities have continued to insist on the illegitimacy of the vote and Ahmadinejad as the "chosen" president. There have been very clear statements made by high ranking clerics, openly calling the government illegitimate, and last Friday's sermon by Rafsanjani at Friday prayers has been the clearest (and boldest) public statement on the situation. Interestingly, only yesterday, Khatami (former reformist president) was quoted to have proposed a "national referendum" to put the question of the government's legitimacy to the people. This is a very bold step, and has raised the demands a multitude of degrees.

4) Martyrs and their families:

Another source of immense pressure on the authorities has been the families of those killed or imprisoned. We are now getting more and More names of the people who were killed in the protests. Their families are holding vigils and public ceremonies (something Neda's family were not allowed to do), and one person in particular has been very vocal. The mother of Sohran Arabi (a 19 year old who was killed under suspicious circumstances, either in Evin prison under torture, or on Black Saturday) has given interviews to the BBC Persian TV and has said openly that she will not let her son to have died in vain. Her courage in coming out and demanding justice has been truly inspiring.

The people of Iran will continue to protest, and will continue to use every opportunity to demand justice. No one could have imagined that Friday prayers (which has traditionally been used by the regime to trumpet its policies, and to attack "foreign imperialists" or to shove various forms of lies and untruths down people's throats) would one day be turned into a massive protest rally. From now on, every Friday, the regime will be in fear of another massive showing by the Green movement.

The regime is only digging its own grave. Even now, after so many people being killed and many more facing torture in prisons, the people of Iran continue to be peaceful and to demand their rights within the confines of the current political system. They still want their votes back. But as the regime continues to insult people's intelligence by supporting Ahamdinejad and his gangs of thugs and murderers, they will only radicalize the masses. Already, some are asking for a complete throw down of the regime. The longer this continues, the less likely that the supporters of the green movement will settle for anything other than a complete change of system, and that will mean the end of the Islamic Republic and its underlying philosophy of "velayat faghih".

Inspiring the world

2009-07-02T09:37:00.000-07:00

The events of the past three weeks, and the brutal and disproportionate (this is a gross understatement by the way) crack down of the peaceful demonstrations (through beatings, kidnappings, unlawful imprisonment, torture and murder of protesters) have shown the world a picture of Iran and its people that the world had not seen before. While on the one hand the brutality of the Iranian government an its illegitimacy has been exposed, the world has also seen the true image of the Iranian people: young, vibrant, brave and in search of freedom.

The people of Iran have inspired all the freedom-lovers of the world in an unprecedented way. Neda Agh Soltan, and all those other people who have been killed and imprisoned have become symbols for freedom and equality every where. The huge number of songs, poems, art work and painting that have been developed by non-Iranians in solidarity with the protest movement is a testament to this.

You know a protest movement has deep roots when it is immortalized in songs and art. Here, I would like to share some of this with you.

Before the elections:

Before the elections, the reformist candidates (Moussavi and Karroubi) used songs and video clips to galvanize their supporters. I particularly like this following video, used by Moussavi's campaign. It is a re-mix of an old, folk song, that talks about how "winter is over". Here are the lyrics in Persian, followed by the video itself.

سر اومد زمستون
شكفته بهارون
گل سرخ خورشيد باز اومدو شب شد گريزون
كوهها لاله زارن
لاله ها بيدارن
تو كوهها دارن گل گل گل آفتابو مي كارن
توي كوهستون دلش بيداره
تفنگ و گل و گندم داره مياره
توي سينه اش جان جان جا
نيه جنگل ستاره داره، جان جان، يه جنگل ستاره داره
سر اومد زمستون
شكفته بهارون
گل سرخ خورشيد باز اومدو شب شد گريزون
لبش خنده نور
دلش شعله شور
صداش چشمه و يادش آهوي جنگل دور
توي كوهستون دلش بيداره
تفنگ و گل و گندم داره مياره
توي سينه اش جان جان جا
نيه جنگل ستاره داره، جان جان، يه جنگل ستاره دار

After the elections

The enormity of the street demonstrations took everyone, especially the regime by surprise. On June 15, over 1 million people (some estimates talk of 2.5 to 3 million) people demonstrated on the streets of Tehran. On the early hours of that day, the student dormitories at Tehran University were attacked, and 5 students (although this was never officially confirmed) were killed. Later that day, as the demonstration was nearing its end, the Basij attacked people and 8 more were killed. On June 16th, the government staged a rally in "support" of Ahmadinejad where they reportedly had to bus people in from surrounding towns to make it look bigger (despite this, foreign reporters estimated the number to be around 10,000 at most). There, Ahmadinejad gave a speech in which he called the protesters "riff-raff" and "dust".

Amazingly, in the protests that continued over the ensuing days, people were holding out banners with a poem written on them, that addressed Ahmadinejad and his insults to the people of Iran. That poem has now been turned into a song, and there are at least three versions on youtube. The singer of only one is known, and he lives in LA. I have included all three videos, with the first having English subtitles of the song.

Revolutionary songs

I found this video really interesting. They have taken a very old revolutionary song (from 30 years ago), and superimposed various images of the protests. The main sentence in the lyrics is: "stand up, destroy the the enemy's fortress".

The latest song

This song, that just surfaced today, is by far the most professionally made song and video of the protests. It is by a group called Hypernova, who until recently were an under ground rock band in Iran. A couple of years ago they moved to the US (since their kind of music -along with most other liberties - is "forbidden" by the Iranian government).

Ahmadinejad's "confirmation"

2009-06-29T21:04:00.000-07:00

As expected, the Guardian Council (GC) "confirmed" the "selection" of Ahmadinejad and announced that he was now the president of the country. But not before they put on an interesting show for the public by re-counting 10% of the ballot boxes "in front of the state TV's cameras"! (of course, after almost two weeks, and 18 million extra ballots printed before the election the fate of which is unknown, it was not surprising that almost all the boxes opened were full of Ahmadinejad votes).

As I had suspected, the 5 day delay was used to try to control the situation for the benefit of the coup organizers. They initially announced the creation of a commission (made up entirely of Ahmadinejad loyalists) to "examine" the concerns of the reformist candidates. The reformist candidates wisely did not participate in this sham process, but the Guardian Council tried to make it look like they "tried to engage" the protesters through this commission.

At the same time, it appears that the 5 day delay was used to try to convince Moussavi and Karroubi to back down. At the same time, Moussavi's isolation appears to have been intensified, and at least one of his websites has been shut down.

The story of Rafsanjani trying to use his powers to mount an attack on Khamanei (by calling a special meeting of the Assembly of Experts , and potentially challenging Khamenei's position) seems to have either been a red herring, or if true, been unsuccessful. After a two week silence, Rafsanjani finally made a statement in which he tried hard to appear even handed, and while urging the GC to consieder the protests "fairly", also asked the reformist candidates to "cooperate with GC".

And finally, reports posted on various Iranian sites (such as balatarin.com) talk of very heavy police presence on the streets of Tehran today, in anticipation of potential protests after GC's announcement. Scores of arrested activists and protesters are still in jail, and apparently under pressure to "confess" to their crimes and their links to "foreign powers".

So it appears that the system has been successful in implementing the pessimistic scenario outlined in my prior post.

But have they really won?

Various developments over the past few days tell me that it's still far from over.

First off, despite isolation and intense pressure, both reformists candidates have continued to insist that they do not accept the results, and have refused to back down. In fact, Karroubi's statement of two days ago was very clever. In it, he called on the Guardian Council to not take the responsibility of confirming the election results, and defer that to the Supreme Leader himself. With this statement, Karroubi made it clear that in his view, the GC is not the real player here and that it is Khamenei himself who should take full responsibility for the "election" of Ahmadinejad. He threw the ball squarely in Khamenei's court, and essentially put the responsibility for Ahmadinejad's selection fully on Khamenei's shoulders.

Another interesting development has been the statements of various grand Ayatollahs who have started to make comments on the situation. After almost two weeks of silence, the majority of the major ayatollahs in Qom have not only declined to acknowledge Ahmadinejad as president, but have also some out with various statements that have indicated their displeasure with the situation. One of them, Ayatollah Javadi Amoli's statement during last Friday prayers in the city of Qom was very clear in its criticism of the Guardian Council, and seriously undermined the GC's ability to play the role of an impartial arbiter of the situation while it is also responsible for making the laws and supervising the elections. In a sermon that was apparently leaked on the internet, another mullah has been very critical of Khamenei.

It also appears that the scenario of tying all the protesters and the reformist political activists to "foreign powers" and putting the blame on them is not going according to plan. So far, only one relatively minor reformist activist has given a "press conference" in which he attacked his own party and colleagues. It appears that the more important activists are still holding up against the pressure and possible torture. I think the fact that the regime arrested some of the local employees of the British Embassy in Tehran shows that they are really desperate to make their pre-fabricated story look credible, and they've had to up the ante.

Despite the heavy crackdown, people continue to gather on the streets. On Sunday, a few thousand gathered in and around a mosque (although the police did apparently attack them, and the crowd was not as large as in prior demonstrations). The fact that 3000-7000 people still showed up is an indication that there are a lot of people who are willing to take the risk of going onto the streets to protest.

And finally, Neda's murder continues to scare the coup leaders shitless. The pathetic attempt of Ahmadinejad ( who in an open letter to the chief of the judiciary has asked him to find and punish those behind her killing!!!), the state media's half-hour documentary that pathetically tried to make it sound as if her killing was pre-planned by protesters, and the head of the Basij's comments that those attacking people pretended to be basiji by wearing their uniform and were not "true" basijis, all point to the fact that they are still scrambling to control the damage.

A lot will depend on Mousavi and his colleagues. Will they be able to get their message out to people (the answer still seems to be yes)? Will he call for more protests? Nation wide strikes?

The next couple of days will be critical.

interesting Iran election analysis

2009-06-26T14:04:00.000-07:00

Here is an interesting video from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with three panelists who discuss the current political situation in Iran post-elections.

If you are having trouble accessing the video, go to this page.

The 5 day delay

2009-06-25T15:56:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday, and while protests continued on the streets of Tehran despite a bloody crackdown, news came that Khamenei had agreed to a request by the head of the Guardian Council (the body that is responsible for vetting of candidates, supervising the elections and confirming their results) to delay the announcement of the results so that they can further investigate the complaints raised by candidates.

This was very curious, and quite unexpected. The was even more strange as Khamanei (who actually personally appoints 6 of the 12 members of the council) himself had on two occasions come out to forcefully declare the results valid and asked everyone to accept them.

Obviously the situation is very fluid, and there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. However, I can see two potential scenarios that might explain why the 5 day delay was declared.

The optimistic scenario

The regime has seen the ferocity with which the people are demanding their rights, and the continued protests in Tehran and various other cities, and the nightly chants of Allah-o-Akbar all indicate that they will not be satisfied with sham results. This will remain a fire under the ashes, and can erupt at anytime.

Having realized this, they are trying to find a way out of this mess. The reason why the candidates Moussavi and Karroubi, as well as other important figures such as Rafsanjani and Khatami have been curiously silent is because there are intense behind the scenes negotiations going on. They are trying to calm things down a bit. Recent comments by some of the hardliners close to the supreme leader and the Ahmadinejad faction such as the speaker of the parliament (Larijani) and the Tehran mayor (Qalibaf) who have talked about the need to "address people's questions" can be seen along the same lines.

They need the extra few days to find a compromise.

The pessimistic scenario

The regime has indeed realized that the masses are about to burst, but they have decided to continue the coup d'etat and crush all dissent. They probably anticipated that announcing the final decision of the Guardian Council may have result in more protests, and perhaps more bloodshed that could further undermine their international status. So they have delayed the announcement, to give themselves more time to calm things down, create an intense environment of fear and intimidation, and create other scenarios that would distract people from their demands. They also want to lay the groundwork for the possible arrest of Moussavi should he not bow down.

The rumors about Rafsanjani being in Qom, trying to oust Khamenei, may be a red herring. Perhaps, they want to distract people from street protests, and create some sort of false hope amongst the people that somehow Rafsanjani will come to the rescue and not only remove Ahmadinejad, but the supreme leader himself!

It is true that Rafsanjani is the head of the Council of Experts, a body responsible for choosing and "supervising" the leader and with powers to remove him if needed, but as some observers have indicated, it is very unlikely that the council members would have the courage to consider removing Khamenei. All indications are that Rafsanjani and his clan may be a target for Ahmadinejad (as Ahmadinejad also gave some veiled threats during his first speech, to the effect that people who have been corrupt financially may be prosecuted). So he's probably fighting for his life and his vast financial empire, but he may just be watching things silently, hoping to make a deal for himself.

The other way the system may be trying to distract people from further protests are the comments made by Larijani and Qalibaf, who belong to the fundamentalist faction to which Khamenei and Ahmadinejad belong.

And lastly, there has bee a campaign of intimidation. Today, video surfaced of massive damage done to people's homes by the anti-riot police, for no apparent reason than installing fear in people's hearts. More footage showed the riot police thrashing people's cars and homes during the protests. Now, we are seeing "confessions" on the state TV, and there are many rumors on the internet that the political activists arrested are facing torture to "confess" to links with the US and Britain. We are also seeing the rhetoric with Britain being ratcheted up.

The silence of Khatami, Moussavi and Karroubi in the reformist camp is probably because they are essentially under house arrest, with very limited access to the media. In fact, Mousavi's news paper has been shut down, and all the staff working there arrested. Karroubi's newspaper was essentially surrounded by the militia and the police, with its staff trapped inside the night of the election results.

Finally, we are seeing the groundwork for Moussavi's arrest being prepared by newspapers such as Kayhan, who belong to the supreme leader and who are calling for Moussavi's arrest.

So, on the one hand they seem to be isolating Moussavi and other reformists, to the point that they are virtually unable to mobilize their supporters. They are trying to distract people (via various strategies) from focusing on more street demonstrations, and at the same time trying to write a scenario that will link the protests to the usual suspects (US, Britain and "International Zionism")! They are also preparing for the possibility of even arresting Moussavi should he continue to call for dissent when the results are announced next week. The 5 day delay was meant to allow time for all these strategies.

It's any body's guess which of the above two scenarios will play out in the coming days, but the fact that Khamenei is going to host the Friday prayers for a second week in a row may give some clues.

Neda's killing and the Iranian government cover up

2009-06-25T15:35:00.000-07:00

Neda's senseless murder last Saturday during peaceful protests that were turned into a bloodbath has become a symbol of Iranian people's quest for freedom and human rights. Indeed, she has become a symbol for all people, Iranian or not, who believe in such values.

It was perhaps inevitable that the Iranian government/regime was going to start some damage control. However, the vulgarity with which they have been trying to spin the situation in their favor is simply sickening.

The government propaganda machine has gone into an assault mode, with the state TV and various "newspapers" coming up with all sorts of ridiculous scenarios to throw people off and to try to portray Neda's murders as something else. They have talked about how she was killed by "terrorists" from the Mojahedin-e-Khalgh organization or other protesters. They have even talked about how the BBC correspondent John Lyne had "hired thugs" to have Neda killed so that he could make a "documentary" about it!!!! And in their latest pathetic attempt, they have sent the Iranian ambassador to Mexico to talk to Wolf Blitzer on CNN, where he has accused the CIA of being behind her murder, claiming that "the bullet found in her body does not exist in Iran, and this is the sort of bullet that the CIA has"!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know if any one who has an ounce of functional brain would believe this sort of nonsense, but if they did (as I'm sure many of this regime lackeys might), the doctor who was an eyewitness to her death and tried in vain to save her life, has given an interview with the BBC where he described in detail those horrific moments, and the role of the Basij in shooting people. You must see his interview.

For yet More evidence on how the Basij has been behind the killing of protesters, and how they shoot at people, see these videos here and here. The second video is specially telling , as there have been reports that many of the people being shot had sustained fatal injuries to their heads and chests, indicating that they were targeted deliberately.

Neda's family forced out of their homes

2009-06-24T16:41:00.000-07:00

Just to see how despicable this regime is, read this Guardian article detailing the way Neda's family have been treated by the murderous regime of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

Pictures

2009-06-22T21:59:00.001-07:00

More interesting pictures from the past few days on boston.com.

Chronology 2

2009-06-22T21:46:00.000-07:00

June 18

At the Friday prayers, Khamenei reaffirmed his support for his monkey, and threatened protesters with violence. This made major news all over the world. Moussavi and karroubi who had called for protests on Saturday did not attend the prayers.

People braced themselves for major violence, but their resolve showed no sign of waning. On the same day of Khamenei's speech, people went onto the rooftops, and shouted "Alloh-Akbar" or God is Great, in a flashback to the days of the revolution 30 years before, and in a sign of defiance to the repression.

June 19

People turned out in thousands again, but met major crackdown by the security forces. Major clashes ensued, and the regime's killing machine was unleashed. More and more videos have come out since then, but the murder of Neda was the nail in the coffin of this despicable regime.

Neda is now a symbol of the Iranian nation's quest for freedom.

June 20

After the brutal crackdown of the previous day, there was a relative calm,but there were reports of more street protests.

The shock of Neda's murder captured the imagination of the International community, and people all over the world staged protests against the brutal crackdown.

June 21

Despite the massive security protests, people still took to the streets. The numbers of protesters are much less than last week, but they continue to defy authorities.

Sharp shooters?

2009-06-21T16:12:00.001-07:00

Yesterday's protests turned bloody. I have seen numerous videos and pictures of people getting shot yesterday and being killed. Today, the state media (Ahmadinejad's mouthpiece) has claimed10 people were killed. The rumors floating around on the net yesterday talked of at least 19 people getting gunned down.

One thing that I noticed was that almost all the pictures and videos I have seen of these martyrs show that they were shot in the chest or the neck, fatal wounds that have killed these people in seconds to minutes.

I am very doubtful that these were just random shots or stray bullets. I wonder if these are the works of sharp shooters, who have been deliberately targeting individuals. Some reports talk of Basiji gunmen on top of rooftops, shooting at people. Obviously these are hard to confirm, but if the pictures are any indication, they may well be true.

Killing on the streets of Tehran

2009-06-20T11:16:00.000-07:00

As the night falls on Iran, people are uploading their pictures and images of today's protests.

The government bastards are killing people on the streets. This is an exteremely disturbing video of a woman getting shot and dying today, with her father hovering over her body and just screaming , screaming. There are people who try to do CPR, but you can see that blood is pouring out of her mouth.

There is another video of the same situation, a different angle on facebook.

This is the government of Ahmadinead, this is the regime of Khamenei.

To all those mother fuckers in Russia and China and other dictators who have congratulated this murderer and have welcomed him with open arms: you are culprits in these murders.

To Obama: you keep talking about "directly engaging with the Iranian government". Are you willing to sit down across the table from Ahmadinejad, a holocaust denier, a thug, a murderer? If your answer is yes, then you should watch this video over and over and over again.

The crackdown has started

2009-06-20T07:25:00.000-07:00

What we had all feared, is unfolding in front of our eyes.

The regime in Iran has started the process of turning the country into another Burma. PLEASE, DO NOT BELIEVE THE LIES THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IS FEEDING YOU!

The Iranian state media and the "news agencies", well known to be mouth pieces of the regime and a source of lies and untruths, have intensified their propaganda and more importantly, are reading out the script the regime has written to set the stage for a massive murderous crackdown.

1. The highest authority in the country (Khamanei) yesterday threatened the demonstrators that they are responsible if they get shot! This is repeated again today by the state media. They are essentially saying that if people go out, get shot at and killed, it's their own fault! This is amazing given that the supreme leader is the commander in chief, and not only the armed forces, but also the police are under his direct control. If there was one reason why this monster should be arrested and prosecuted, this statement is it.

2. They have been arresting scores of reformist politicians, political activists and students. Reports indicate that these people have been under extreme pressure to "confess" to being part of a 'Zionist" and "American" plot to overthrow the regime. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NEXT DAY FEW DAYS, STATE TV STARTS PARADING SOME OF THESE PEOPLE IN FRONT OF THE CAMERAS, ANS SHOWING THEM "CONFESSING" TO THEIR CRIMES.

3. They have all along been trying to turn the protests violent, and thus making up an excuse to start killing people on a massive scale. The people have been very smart, and in the past few days, their protests have been extremely peaceful (indeed, people have been holding SILENT marches).

4. The report that a "suicide bomber" exploded a bomb at Khomeini's shrine IS EXTREMELY SUSPICIOUS. If a bomb did indeed go off, I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF THAT WAS BEHIND IT.

Here's why this news is either not true, or perpetrated by the regime itself:
- the Iranian protesters have been peaceful all along. The blogosphere has been full of messaging, informing people why they should not lose their cool and how this will play into the regime's hands.
- there has NEVER been SUICIDE bombings in Iran by Iranians (the only incident was a while ago in Zahedan, the province bordering Afghanistan and the bombing itself was blamed on Alqaeda and not any Iranians).
- how could Moussavi supporters, who have only been asking for their votes to be counted (and have been limiting their demands for change essentially to this one point) decide to start bombing places? where would they get ammunition? This just does not make any sense.

The regime is poking people to try to turn the protests into violent clashes, and they will go to any lenghth ti achieve this, including setting off bombs themselves and attributing them to Moussavi.

Why Green?

2009-06-19T14:29:00.000-07:00

By now, you must have noticed that green has become the colour of the protests. People demonstrating in Iran and around the world have been wearing green shirts and carrying green banners.

But why green?

Prior to the elections, and as the campaigning picked up more steam, the four candidates running for the presidency picked different colour schemes for their campaigns. Moussavi picked green, Karroubi chose white, and Rezaie (the other conservative candidate who used to be the head of the revolutionary guards, the main backers of the current coup) used blue. As always, Ahmadinejad was the only one who weaseled his way with colours; initially his campaign were using red in their posters, but soon after they started to use the flag of Iran (which is tricolour, green and white as well as red). This way, he in a way expropriated not only the national flag for himself, but also tried to pre-empt the colours of the other reformist candidates. Indeed, one of the slogans chanted by demonstrators in Iran in the past few days has been "give us our flag back".

But back to why Moussavi chose green.

Green is essentially the colour of Islam, and you can see this colour included in the flags or coats of arms of almost all Islamic countries. However, it has an additional significance in the Shiite branch of Islam.

Shites believe that after Prophet Mohammad died, his cousin Ali (who also was his son in law in that he had married the prophet's daughter, Fatemeh) should have become the Islamic society's political and religious leader. They also believe that after Ali, his elder son Hassan, and after Hassan's death, Ali's other son Hussein and his decendents should have become "caliphs". Ali and his children (Hassan and Hussein, prophet's grandsons) and their children are known as "Imam", and are essentially saint-like figures in Shiites' beliefs.

As a results, Shiites believe that prophet's decedents were his true "inheritors" of his legacy. They also believe that there are members in the community who are decedents of the prophet's linage, and these people are referred to as "Seyyed" (the term simply means "sir", and it is a sort of title that is given to people who descend from the prophet's family). There are many Seyyeds in Iran and other countries where Shiites live (my grandfather is one!), and many of these people actually have detailed documents that show how they're related to Hassan or Hussein or other Imams. In the old days, Seyyeds traditionally used to wear green coloured caps, or green shawls around their necks to distinguish themselves, and because they are believed to have descended from the prophet, they are generally respected and trusted amongst ordinary people.

Mir-Hossein Moussavi is also a seyyed, so is Kharami (Iran's reformist president from 1997-2005) and the revolution's founder , Khomeini. The current leader is also a Seyyed.

This is why Moussavi picked green as his colour, and during the run up to the vote urged his supporters to use this colour to distinguish himself. In a way, he was trying to play on the traditional themes that have been part of the Iranian history and culture. Since the rigged results were announced, and in the subsequent protests, green has become the colour for change and freedom.

Where is this going?

2009-06-19T14:15:00.000-07:00

Up to now, the Iranian regime had three choices:

1- Accept people's demands, nullify the sham results and allow for free and fair elections. This way, it could ensue its survival in a way that could reinforce its legitimacy.

2- Ignore the people, crush demonstrations, kill thousands and thousands of people, arrest thousands more, and even kill or send into exile some the most prominent figures of the regime (such as Rafsanjani and other founders of the revolution who are now in a power struggle with Khamanei and his gang). In other words, turn Iran into another Burma or North Korea, completely cut off from the rest of the world, and isolated. This way, they could ensure the survival of the regime for a few more years or even decades, but for how long, and at what cost?

3- Ignore the people, and turn the protests into a full on revolution that will result in the death of the current political system.

Khamenei's speech today has quickly taken option number one off the table.

And Khamenei keeps on digging!

2009-06-19T13:33:00.000-07:00

In my last post, I mentioned how the regime has turned what could have been a source of legitimacy into a potential movement that can bring it down completely. Through their massive fraud, and the subsequent crack down and killings, they have dug themselves a hole that they don't seem to be able to get out of. And strangely enough, they have now brought out a bulldozer to dig even harder and deeper!!

Khamenei's speech today wasn't exactly unexpected, as it was clear even before the elections that Ahmadinejad was his favorite poodle. In fact, in a very important speech that he gave to the Iranian cabinet a year before the elections, he told them: "you should continue your work as if you have another 5 years ahead of you"! And the fact that he came out only a few hours after the election results were announced to congratulate Ahmadinejad, only made his support more apparent.

With his own hands, Khamanei is turning the protests that were about election results into protests against the whole institution of the "Supreme leader" and its philosophical basis.

The stakes have just gotten a whole lot higher.

The irony

2009-06-18T18:51:00.001-07:00

The events of the past five days are not only interesting for their tenacity and unexpectedness, but also for the fact that they are ironic in many ways:

- Moussavi, one of the founders of the revolution, and the prime minister of the regime during some of its darkest days (i.e. the war with Saddam's Iraq), has unwittingly become the hero of the reform movement. He has expressed all along during the run up to the elections that his decision to run for office (after being away from politics for 20 years during which he occupied himself with painting and other intellectual activities) was because he felt the "revolution" had veered off in the wrong direction, and away from its founding principles of justice and freedom. He had made it clear that he believes in the current system, and he never set out to become an "opposition" leader. In fact, some reformists in Iran were skeptical of Moussavi as a true "reformist", since he was much less partisan than most of them.

Yet, by completely ignoring the will of the Iranian people, The regime has created a situation where Moussavi has now become an unexpected hero. To his credit, he has remained steadfast in his fight for justice, and has repeatedly indicated to people that he is there with them to the end.

- The massive turn out of people at the ballot boxes could have been a positive point for the regime. For a system that has always been on shaky grounds on the legitimacy issue, people's turn out could have been a source of legitimacy which it badly needs in the current international climate. Indeed, that is how the official state media and other mouth pieces of the regime are trying to portray the polls. Yet, the fraud and subsequent protests, have completely nullified this! The regime, with its own hands, has turned a source of legitimate governance into its polar opposite. It is as if they are digging their own graves.

Up to now, people's demands have been limited to nullifying the sham results, and re-doing the election under open and fair conditions. The people have continued to want to work within the confines of the current system, and have not yet called for "regime change". However, with the staunch backing of the coup, the Supreme leader has put himself in a very difficult situation, and despite his repeated demands for people to accept the sham results and stop demonstrating, people have completely ignored him and have defied his demands. Already, the protests have become a symbol of defiance to the Supreme leader and his ruling apparatus. It is unclear what direction the protests will take. but if the regime continues to back its coup and insists on Ahmadinejad's presidency, then they may well turn into a "revolution" as opposed to "reform".

Pictures

2009-06-18T18:42:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting pictures of protests over the past few days. As you can see, people of all walks of life, religious and secular, young and old, urban and rural are taking part in these demonstrations.

Was this a coup?

2009-06-18T18:17:00.000-07:00

Since the official results of the presidential elections were released on June 13, some observers have called the massive fraud as a coup d'eta.

Here is an interesting article that describes why the results, and the regimes actions since then all fit with a pattern seen in coups around the world.

- People turn out in large numbers and vote for one candidate, yet the regime pulls another one's name out of the ballot boxes.

- The regime attempts to shut down the free flow of communication, both within the country (in order to limit the reformist candidates' observers during the voting and the subsequent counting, as well as to limit organizing protests after the results are announced). They shut down all SMS text messaging service (from the night before the polls open), have shut down the cell phone service, have blocked access to email sites (such as hotmail), social networking sites (facebook and twitter), and scores of reformist websites. The security forces surrounded the reformist newspaper offices, and have banned all foreign media reporters (those who were not already kicked out of the country) from actually reporting the events.

- The security forces (the police, revolutionary guards and their Basij militias, as well as thugs and murderers on their payrolls) have been roaming the streets of Tehran in convoys, beating people up, breaking into stores and even attacking private condo complexes and causing damage to cars and properties, all in an attempt to scare people off and create an atmosphere of fear and intimidation. They have also been arresting people who participate in demonstrations.

- The Basij have broken into student dormitories in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan, causing massive damage, arresting scores of students (many of whom are still under arrest, and reports indicate are under pressure to provide false testimonies to fit a scenario that aims to make it look like these students are agents of foreign countries and have been plotting to overthrow the regime) and killing a few (warning: this video is extremely disturbing).

- The police (or other security forces, it is hard to know who these people are) have arrested hundreds of political activists, and reformist politicians. The arrest started on June 13 with the spontaneous streets protests, and have intensified in the last 24 hours.

If these are not the actions of a coup government, then what are?

Chronology of events so far

2009-06-17T18:58:00.000-07:00

Events in Iran are moving fast. Here is a brief overview of the events so far:

Lead up to the elections

While the discussions around this year's presidential elections stared over a year ago in reformist newspapers, it wasn't until around two weeks ago when the general public really got into it. This happened after the state television (which has been squarely behind Ahmadinejad and has been a major player in this "electoral coup" that has taken place) began a series of televised debated between the candidates. This was unprecedented, as there have never been any television debates amongst the candidates in previous elections. After this, the public were galvanized, and there were daily and nightly election rallies on the streets. You can see some pictures and videos of these pre-election campaign here. These photos are just amazing, and will give you a flavor of the pre-election atomosphere. This CNN story paints a very intersting picture of the race before the polls.

The reformist candidates had expressed their fear that the government of Ahmadinejad, with its backers in the Revolutionary Guards and its associated Basij militia group, and high level support from the Supreme Leader himself, might try to rig the votes.

The night before the elections, the SMS text messaging service was shut down in the country. This was seen as an attempt to limit the reformist candidates' ability to communicate with their election observers.

June 12- Election day

Polls started in the morning, and continued until late at night, after the government was forced to extend the voting period because of overwhelming turn out. According to news media sources covering this day, there was a massive turn out, with the reformist supporters coming out to vote for their candidates (Moussavi and Karroubi). Here are some pictures of this day.

The BBC Persian TV service that was covering the election day live reported that its signals were being jammed , from a source in the area.

The vote counting began after the polls closed around midnight, however despite all pre-election projections, as well as observations from the day's events, the interior ministry starts to release the results in, with a ridiculously high vote count for Ahmadinejad!

Later reports, from Mr Moussavi's camp, indicate that it had become clear very early on that Mr Moussavi had won the elections. In fact, they report that the interior ministry called him early in the counting process, informing him that he had indeed won the votes. He gave a press conference, when he declared himslef the winner. Yet over the next few hours, the official numbers released by the ministry claimed otherwise. At the same time, the reformist candidates were placed essentially under house arrest, and the security services surrounded one of the reformist newspapers, with the staff held inside.

June 13

The people of Iran woke up to the amazing news that Ahmadinejad has won with over 24 million votes! Reports indicated that there was an atmosphere of shock amongst the people. However as the day wore on, people started to take to the streets in completely spontaneous rallies. The police stared to attack the crowd, yet amazingly, people fought back. People burn a bus on the streets.

All reformist websites were either shut down or severley limtted. Mr Moussavi's main campaign head quarter was also attacked and shut down the day before. Later in the day, we finally heard from Mr Moussavi's campaign. He indicated that he did not accept the results. later mr karroubi also put out a statement to the same effect, however communications were severly limitted and the shock continued.

The Supreme Leader, in an unprecedneted way congratulates Ahmadinejad's "win", caling it "divine"!! Ahmadinejad has the audacity to give an address on the state TV, calling his election "free and fair"!!!

June 14

Spontaneous rallies in Tehran and other cities continued. Running battles on the streets, with police attacking the crowds. This amazing video shows the people capturing a riot policeman. Mr Moussavi put out a statement, saying that his campaign had applied for permission for a rally for the next day (June 15), and asked people to join him in a march from Azadi square to Enghelab square.

At the same time, Iranians across the world held rallies in cities, protesting the results. It must be noted that for the first time after the revolution, Iranian expatriates had participated in the elections along with the people inside the country. rallies were held in cities every where, in Vancouver, Toronto, London and Paris.

June 15

In the early hours of Monday June 15th, the Basij militia and their thugs attack the student dormitories, causing massive disctruction. Reports indicated 5 students were killed.

Later in the day, people hold a MASSIVE rally in Tehran, with the turnout estimated to be anywhere between 1 to 2.5 million people. This is despite the fact that the government refused to issue a permit, called the rally "illegal" , and warned both Moussavi and the people not to participate or " the state will not be responsible for what happens"!!!

You can see pictures of this day, as well as the preceding days here. Moussavi, karroubi, Khatami and many other prominent reformists attend the rally, and vow to continue their protests until the election results are nullified. Some people hold up signs in the crowd, inviting people to join them in a rally planned for the next day in Vali-asr sqaure at 5 pm.

The rally went on peacefully, but later in the day, it turned violent as some people tried to attack a Basij militia headquarters, and the basiji forces start shooting at people. At least 8 people were killed, one killing caught on tape by the British Channel 4 news team..

June 16

The Ahmadinejad government calls a sham "pro-Ahmadinejad" rally, for 4 pm at Vali-asr square! Reports indicate his supporters were bused in from around Tehran, yet estimates are for a maximum of 20,000 people.

Protesters however continue to come out in full force, changing their rally and marching up towards the offices of the state radio and TV at Jaame Jam. Unlike the previous day however, the foreign media are banned from reporting on this day's events, and are confined to their hotel rooms. Protests from across Iran continue, and things get violent at nights, with the basiji militia going on rampage in various neighbourhoods in an effort to scare people off.

Around the world, Iranians continue to protest the results along with their brothers and sisters inside Iran. See pictures here.

June 17

More protests, this time a silent march in the middle of Tehran. Foreign media are still banned from reporting.

Moussavi calls for a "day of mourning" and protests for June 18. Karroubi calls for more protests for June 19, at the Friday prayers, which this week will be presided over by non other than the Supreme Leader himslef! Karroubi asks his supporters to all wear balck, and to show up in massive numbers at the Friday prayer rally.

Iranian soccer players, in a brave and defying act, wear green wrist bands to show their solidarity with the protest movement (green has become he color and symbol of these protests).

Iranian-Canadians gather at the Russian consulate, to protest Ahmadinejad's visit to Moscow and his recognition by Medvedev as the Iranian president.

Did Moussavi really win?

2009-06-16T20:59:00.000-07:00

One of the issues that a lot of people have been asking is about the validity of the claims made by Mir-Hossein Moussavi and the many thousands of protesters who have been marching on the streets of various cities in Iran that the results of the elections are fraudulent.

Up to a day or two ago, most of the evidence circulated in the bloggosphere and amongst analysts, in news papers and on TV programmes have been indirect, and circumstantial. However more recently, there are reports of "leaks" from within the establishment of the "true" results of the elections. There are scanned images of an official letter, allegedly written by the Minister of Interior and addressed to the Supreme Leader that lists the true vote tally. The authenticity of this letter is in question.

These reports claim that Moussavi in fact won 19 million votes (compared to the 14 or so released officially), with the other reformist candidate winning 13 million votes. Ahmadinejad was apparently in third place, with only 6 million votes.

While these numbers are not confirmed (and Moussavi's official camp have so far been quiet on what they think the true numbers are), there are a lot of indirect evidence that really call into question the official results of the election claiming Ahmadinejad has won with over 24 million votes! This article describes some of these really well.

- All the indications in the lead up to the polls were that Moussavi had been able to ignite a tremendous amount of interest amongst the " tahrimis", those who had boycotted the last round of elections, as well as the general population. There were spontaneous rallies and gatherings on the streets of Tehran, almost every night, with Moussavi's supporters out on the streets campaigning for him.

- According to Moussavi supporters, there were numerous opinion polls (some undertaken by the government itself) that showed Moussavi's votes were in the range of 55-65% of the electorate. While opinion polls can not necessarily be considered a true reflection of outcomes when the race between candidates is close (such as in the US, where the president generally is voted into office by no larger a margin than 5-10%), in a country such as Iran where society is so polarized, and the gap between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad apparently so large, they can probably be more reflective of the ultimate outcome.

-The turn out on the polling day itself (June 12) seemed to indicate a massive win for Moussavi. there were huge lineups at the poling stations, and many people seemed to want to vote for change. Traditionally, every time electoral participation has been large in Iran, reformers have won the elections. This is attributed to the fact that the hardliners appear to have a fixed popular base (of around 15-30 % of the population), and are able to consistently bring out their conservative base to the polls every time there is an election, and guarantee themselves around 10-15 million votes. What does fluctuate, is the large middle and upper class votes, who usually voted for reformers. When this block is disillusioned with the system (as they were 4 years ago), and stays away from the polls, the hardliners are able to win.

- The "irregularities" on the night of the elections when votes were being counted are also very fishy. Unlike every other prior election, this time the ministry released the "results" in record time, with no actual geographical breakdown. While they released results in stages, the lies were essentially straight, showing a massive difference in favor of Ahmadinejad, with not fluctuations which are typical of previous years. Generally, when votes from various geographical areas are counted, this results in fluctuations in the outcome as the voting pattern is quite different from the country side to the urban areas, and amongst various ethnic regions.

- When the detailed results were finally released, it became apparent that some of the candidates, including Moussavi, did not even get the vote in their own hometowns and villages!!! this is extremely unusal, as Moussavi belongs to the ethnic Azeri population and he was not only poised to win his own hometown, but also all the Azeri speaking provinces! Even if only all of Moussavi's family members and friends had voted for him, he would have won the vote in his hometown!

- One of the reformist candidates, Mr karroubi who may have come second, received less that 1 % of the votes according to the Interior Ministry, quite and extraordinary thing given that in the last round of elections four years ago (when he also ran fro office), he received many millions of votes! And not only that, the number of votes given to him are perhaps even fewer than the number of people who have been working in his campaign across the country!!

In the latest series of articles outlining the evidence for widespread vote rigging, the Guardian reports that in many places, the official turn out has been over 100%!!!!

Do you still think Ahmadinejad really won over 60% of the vote?

So what is going on?

2009-06-16T20:08:00.000-07:00

Over the past few days, many of my co-workers and friends have been asking me "what is going on in Iran?".

To the outside observer, the whole thing may look a bit strange! It may look something like this:

"In a country that deosn't seem to enjoy a democratic system to begin with, presidential elections were held and the incumbent (who also happens to be a fundamentalist radical) has won with over 60% of the votes. His opponent is just a sore loser who doesn't like the results, and is calling on his supporters to challenge the results. The Iranian people are by and large a bunch of fundamentalst religious fanatics, and given the overwhelming win for Ahmadinejad, they must have elected him. What's the big deal?"

Obviously the reality is more complicated. It is true that elections in Iran (whether presidential elections, or those for the parliament) are not "open and fair" in the true sense of the word, they still do matter a great deal. The system in Iran is sometimes referred to as "quasi-democratic", meaning that while there is not a fully open system, there is still some degree of competition amongst the candidates.

In fact, in my opinion there can be quite a lot of competition, with candidates that can be quite different not only in their style, but also in their thoughts and "world-view" which in turn can be reflected in their policies. It is true that all of the candidates are "pre-selected" through a process that is referred to as "nezarat estesvabi", or "appointative supervision". In this process, all candidates are approved to run for office by a legal government body called the "Guardian Council" (half of its memebers are in turn appointed directly by the "Supreme Leader"). As a result, all candidates are required to show their belief in the current system and its major tenents, primarily the concept of "velayat faghih" and the systems' structure (which envisions various governing bodies, such as the executive, legislative and judicial branches, along with a whole bunch of other centeres of power that at times run in parallel to each other!).

However, even within the confines of these limitations, the candidates that are allowed to run for office are sometimes diametrically different. This was true 12 years ago when Mohammad Khatami ran against his opponent (who was hand picked, and backed by the whole establishment), and it was certainly true this time around when Mir-Hossein Moussavi was pitted against Ahmadinejad.

With this in mind, one can understand why many people in Iran have been so frustrated by the "results" of the election as claimed by Ahmadinead and his interior ministry. After four years of mis-management and rapid decline in all spheres (econmoy, social freedoms, human rights, womens rights, student clamp down, closure of scores of newspapers, and worsenig image and status of Iran regionally and internationally), people showed up in massive numbers to vote, and all indications are that Moussavi was their choice. Yet in a very suspect manner, with reports of massive "irregularities" in the elctoral process and its subsequent vote counting, one name came out of the ballot boxes: Ahmadinejad. People of Iran and around the world are thus asking: Where is My Vote?

Why am I blogging?

2009-06-16T19:19:00.000-07:00

I have never really been into blogging much. However, the events over the past four days in my home country of Iran have compelled me to start this blog. I think it is very important for the people of the world to see what is happening on the streets in Tehran and other cities across the country, and more importantly, understand the context within which these protests are happening.

The situation is clearly volatile, and is changing very rapidly. However to the outside observer who may not be very familiar with the country and its recent past, they may not make much sense. My goal is provide enough background and context to help people make sense out of this rapidly developing story.

Clearly I have my own biases, and I have listed this in my disclaimer.